Why organizations are increasingly optional in a volatile world

Bryce Barker
5 days ago
3 min read

The economy is growing. The stock market is near record highs. Inflation is fairly low. So why do 49% of organization CEOs think their members will face a worse economy over the next year?

That gap is the main finding of Association Laboratory's Looking Forward 2026 research. It comes from 124 top leaders at U.S. trade and professional organizations. The news says one thing. The people running these organizations say another.

Here is what the data shows and what you can do about it.

From "must-have" to "nice-to-have"

When members feel unsure about the future, they cut extra spending first. Dues, travel, training and sponsorships are some of the first things to go. That puts organizations at risk. In fact, 82% of CEOs say general economic pressure and money worries are hurting their members.

The bigger issue is how you are seen. More and more, members treat organizations as optional. The more your organization looks like an expense rather than an investment, the less likely people and companies are to see it as relevant to their success.

The point: your pitch needs to answer more than "what do we offer?" It needs to answer "why is this essential right now?"

Brittleness: the real threat

The data does not point to a crash. It points to a steady squeeze that makes organizations fragile, or "brittle." Brittleness is the slow loss of money, strength, relevance and influence. It often happens often before you can identify a single competitor or event as the cause.

Brittleness shows up in four ways:

A budget that can't handle surprises
A pitch that doesn't stand out
A board that can't make quick calls when things are unclear
An advocacy role that loses ground slowly, then all at once

The danger isn't one big shock. It's being caught off guard by a slow decline you could have spotted coming.

Why Gross Domestic Product (GDP) doesn't show how members feel

Boards often get stuck on one question: if the economy is strong, why do our members feel so worried?

Because GDP doesn't measure how members feel. Three points explain the gap:

GDP is an average. Inside a "good" number, some win and some lose. Members live in specific segments, not averages.
GDP looks backward. A strong quarter can hide tight margins and rising costs across different industries.
Forecasts are just guesses. They help, but they change as new data comes in.

Real growth and real worry can both be true at the same time. Leaders are weighing risk, not cheering for averages.

Competition is bigger than you think

Ask a board about competition and most picture other organizations. That view is too small. Today, you also compete with:

For-profit companies offering education, advocacy and community
Online groups forming on their own through LinkedIn and Facebook
Employers who back organization involvement less than before
Internal splits, where your own chapters fight for attention and money

You are in a crowded field, often without one clear rival to name. That's why decline is easy to miss until it shows up in renewals, event turnout or advocacy power.

Five strategic moves to adapt

You can't control the economy but you can control how your organization responds. The research points to five moves for CEOs and boards.

Name the situation. Accept that members feel squeezed and unsure and let that shape every decision.
Rethink who you compete with. Look past other organizations to for-profits, online platforms and employers.
Treat mergers as a membership shift. This matters most for trade groups, where mergers change who the member is and who makes the calls.
Plan around policy changes. Build uncertainty into your plans instead of reacting to each headline.
Prove your worth. Show value in clear, measurable terms, especially for advocacy.

The story your board can rally around

Uncertainty can't be avoided. Getting blindsided by slow decline can. This isn't about predicting the future. It's about agreeing on a shared story your board can act on: the market is tight, competition is wider than you'd like, policy shifts make planning hard and the real risk is brittleness.

If your board agrees on that, you can make clearer choices about what to keep, what to change and what to stop doing.

Start the discussion at your next board meeting. The groups that name the problem now will be the ones that still matter when the next wave of uncertainty hits.

Looking for help? AOE can help turn your organization uncertainty into a clear plan. Reach out today, and let's make sure your organization stays essential, no matter what comes next.